2009年1月11日星期日

Interview With Singapore's Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew

The following is a transcript of William Safire's interview with Singapore's Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew, recorded on January 31, 1999 at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

Q: Do I have your permission to record this?

A: Yes, go ahead.

Q: And so everything we say is on the record, the same way we handled your press conference this morning, which I felt was very valuable. Particularly the answer about China.

A: That's about as far as I can go.

Q: But that was further than most of us thought you would go, which was very interesting.

A : Well, they have got problems. And you learn to recognize their symptoms.

Q: They have big problems. They have deep social unrest that's beginning to bubble up.

A: That's inevitable, with the sudden changes. It cannot be helped. There's just unequal growth, unequal growth within cities, between cities and between provinces that's partly the result of location, history, and just the luck of the draw.

Now, you take Fujian province, opposite Taiwan. And they didn't have this freeze, it would be like Guangdong opposite Hong Kong. And because of the freeze, it's been a war zone almost, until recently. That's just the luck of the draw. So they know. [inaudible]

Q: What do you think about the way they're handling the dissidents? Do you think it's counterproductive? Why do you think there's such fear in the minds of the leaders in Beijing over a relative handful of ...

A: They're never sure of that. They look at Tiananmen. That's a relative handful of students. And people like Fang Lizhi, a harmless physicist, astrophysicist behind them. But it snowballed. They know they're vulnerable.

The biggest single fear they have, it's the corrosive effect of graft, and the revulsion that it evokes in people. They're never quite sure when it will blow up. It's not that they're all corrupt. I mean, you take Jiang Zemin, or Zhu Rongji. In the center, they are quite clean.

I spoke on my first lesson on this when talking to our businessmen. So I said, ""How do you know when you're dealing with them, who's clean?'' They said, ""It's quite easy. As long as they are on the upward path, they want to keep their records clean for further promotions. Once they are moved sideways, they're stagnant.'' And they said, ""Well, they've got to look after themselves in the future.'' And it sets in and it's widespread. And because of that, they really don't notice how much resentment there is. I mean, even in the rural areas, it's just illegal levies. Not on the books. Just squeeze the farmers. He's the boss, and the Party secretary.

Q: But is stability enhanced by the iron fist, or will it be more likely more stable if they had a few escape valves?

A: They're trying that. At the lowest level, they're allowing villagers to elect their own leaders.

Q: But that's already stopped.

A: No, no. That is still going on. That is not stopped. They're hoping to check the excesses of corrupt Party officials. And there have been cases where corrupt Party officials rigged the elections to stay in. And they try and put it right. So they're trying at a very basic level to make sure that there is some popular support.

Q: But you're not critical of them for cracking down on this.

A: It's China. A completely different set of rules. I don't know. We had a ... he is now paralyzed. He was our Ambassador to Brussels, and he was educated in Singapore, and he went to China. His father sent him to Nanking to study during the war. And he wrote up these experiences in his biography. I mean, it's a history of ... oh, just brutish force. How can you change that overnight?

Q: How can you say it's just China, or Asians are different?

A: I'm not saying that Asians are not human beings. I'm just saying that, if they don't punish people that way, people are not afraid.

Q: Right.

A: I mean, you take the way they shoot their criminals. It's a public demonstration. They bring them in, bent, pushed, humiliated. You kneel down, I shoot you in the back; one bullet. And they make the family pay for that one bullet. And it's a public demonstration.

Q: That's rule by fear.

A: Ah, no. It's to terrorize others into not doing the same thing.

Q: That's rule by fear.

A: No. Because they haven't gotten a police system that can maintain a different kind of regime.

Q: But isn't that wrong?

A: Who are we to decide whether it's right or wrong? That's the way they are, and that's the way we have to deal with them.

Q: Okay.

A: Can we change them?

Q: Why not?

A: [Laughter] You try.

Q: They changed the Communist system in the Soviet Union.

A: You look what has happened in the country now.

Q: Isn't it better off today than it was under Stalin?

A: I don't think so. I mean, maybe better off under Stalin, but is it better off than under Gorbachev? I don't think so.

Q: Well, your ...

A: The Mafia is in charge. The police are disorganized. Everything is a racket. State property is being misappropriated all over. Money is stashed abroad. Homes bought in London. Shares bought on the New York Stock Exchange. The country is hungry. How can you say it's better?

Q: It's better than killing 26 million people.

A: [Laughs] That's Stalin, but we are talking about today. I'm talking about Gorbachev, and what exists under Yeltsin.

Q: Well, Gorbachev was a transitional ...

A: I'm saying ...

Q: Out of the depths that Brezhnev and Stalin and the others ...

A: Yes. And I'm saying, or that I'm hoping that Jiang Zemin will be a bridge towards a better China. He is ...

Q: Better China. By ""better,'' do you mean freer? Or more stable?

A: Better governed China. Less brutal, brutish methods of government.

Q: But isn't there a logical inconsistency to what you're saying? As soon as they become less brutish, they have less fear that they instill.

A: No, no.

Q: And there will be more dissidents, and more people feeling that they can speak their mind.

A: No, I think it's a process that's got to be gradual, and the supporting environment ... meaning the society, the standards of living, ability to accept and not be carried away by these changes, wanting too much too quickly, like the students at Tiananmen, that is possible.

I mean, I've given this example again and again, but I'm not sure that Americans accept, you know, that it has to be a gradual process.

You have an idea of how the country should be. And you say, ""Well, let's change them,'' because you've got the levers. They sell you more than you buy from them. They need your technologies, so ""you change''. I don't think they can change their ways. And if they did, they run very serious risks of internal unrest that may abort the whole process.

Let's put it this way. They do not know where they are heading. What kind of China it will be in 30 years, Jiang Zemin has no idea.

All he knows is that it's going to be a different China. That goes the same for all that generation. They're all ...

Q: But isn't he following the Singapore model, and trying to get more economic freedom without any more political freedom?

A: That's facile. If you just look at China and you look at Singapore, you can see the vast difference.

Q: Well, three million versus ...

A: No, no. It's not that. Three million, but three million with a thick middle class now compared to China. All educated, those below forty. Nearly all educated in the English language, completely conversant with what's going on in the world, and increasingly having a comfortable niche in the order of things. They travel. They see people. They do what they like. They're not regulated and they vote me out and I'm out. And they know that.

Q: Let me challenge you on that. I've written that you're a dictator.

A: [Laughs]

Q: I've often written that.

A: Yes. But if that makes me a dictator, well, you have won. So, am I a dictator? Do I need to be a dictator when I can win, hands down?

Q: That's a good question. Why don't you permit competition politically if you can win hands down?

A: I do permit competition.

Q: That's not what the competition says.

A: Let me make it simpler for you. Joseph Nye, head of the Kennedy School, recently came to Singapore as part of our international advisory board to get our universities to improve their standards. And I had known him for some time, met him before he was in government. At the time he was there, there was this little fuss about a dissident who said, ""I'm going to speak at Raffles Place,'' which is our business center, ""without a permit.'' He asked, why don't we let him speak? I said the law has been on the statute book for the last fifty years. If everybody just turns up at a busy junction at lunchtime and makes a speech and runs around, and everybody does it, there would be pandemonium. We are not that kind of a society. He says, ""Why don't you have a Hyde Park?'' I said, ""Yes, we'll think about that.'' We'll probably do it.

Q: How long ago was that?

A: About two weeks ago.

Q: Now, in that time, there was a Chee Soon Juan ...

A: Yes, that's right. That's the chap. And he said he's not going to pay the fine, and he's been properly charged. He's not going to pay the fine. He's going to go to jail to be a martyr. Fine. But he's no martyr.

Q: Wait ... Isn't there a law on your books saying that after you reach a certain level of fines, you can't stand for office?

A: I don't think he'll be fined beyond that. It would be wonderful.

Q: Well, the fine is a $5,000.00 limit, and the first fine is $3,000.00.

A: But how do you know the first fine will be $3,000.00? We don't know. And we are not going to press for it. Why should we?

Q: Well, why should you fine him anything, if you're not worried about him?

A: Because the laws are there, and he has complied with those laws for the last eight years, since 1992 he has been campaigning. And now, because he has lost, and lost badly in an open, free election, one to one against one of our candidates, he's had exposure on television, which was disastrous for him because he was caught out lying and fibbing and fabricating evidence on a health care paper which he presented. So he's been away for two years, in Australia, licking his wounds, so he wants to find a way to get a splash back, so he tries to ... so he gets a big splash in the Western press ... because they want to beat me up. (Laughs) It's all right; it doesn't bother me.

Q: But here you've just called this man a liar.

A: Yes. He is a liar.

Q: Now, can he sue you for libel?

A: Yes, he can.

Q: Would he win?

A: He would lose. I can prove it.

Q: But if you sue somebody for libel for calling you a liar, you'll win.

A: Because I don't lie.

Q: Ah. So ...

A: If they can prove that I am a liar, I'm done in. And when they sue some of our MPs and Ministers for having mis-spoken, they pay damages.

Q: You don't feel that you have abused, or misused, the law to intimidate people into not running against you?

A: (Laughs) No. No. I don't think so. They can run against me, but it's an effort to gather enough people to make that consistent try year after year, to build an organization.

Q: Now, here you are, an intelligent man, and regarded highly by a lot of intelligent, conservative Westerners, many of whom are friends of mine, and you're trying to leave me with the impression that there is an open, free, political competition ...-

A: Yeah.

Q: Backed up by a free press in Singapore. That is just totally at variance with the facts.

A: [Laughs] I do not agree with that. You called me a dictator. My answer to that is you are entitled to call me whatever you like, but that doesn't make me one, because I don't have to be a dictator. I can get a free vote and win. And there's a long history why that is so. Because I have produced results, and the people know that I mean what I say and I have produced results. You say there's no competition. We have enormous competition from the Communists. Maybe our fault ...-

Q: That's ancient history.

A: Not quite. Not quite. They were in the background all the time until 1990 when they signed the agreement and laid down their arms entirely. And they were always working through open front organizations. So we had fairly stringent laws to keep them out of it. Right.

Q: Uh-huh.

A: Now. We do not own the press, as they do in Malaysia. The press is owned by ... nobody is allowed to own more than 3 percent of the shares. The management of the press is in the hands of our four big banks.

Q: And that makes them terrified of crossing you.

A: No. That makes them having a vested interest in stability and growth, and they support parties that will bring about stability and growth.

Q: But what about truth and freedom? Isn't that just as important as stability ...

A: Our press does not lie. It does not. Nobody is shut off.

Q: Now, you've written that your news policy, quote, ""is not to exclude the contrary point of view, but to make sure the government's point of view is clearly stated.+

A: Yes. Correct.

Q: So if I say that you're a dictator, and that one-party government is inherently corrupt, you do not feel that is libelous? I can go ahead and say that and write that in Singapore?

A: Yes. Everybody knows that we haven't got one-party government and we are not corrupt.

Q: But you say I am free to say that.

A: Yes.

Q: Even though you say I can't prove it.

A: You are stating ...

Q: What I believe.

A: ... a general principle. Are you saying that the PAP government is a one-party government and corrupt? If you say that, you have got to prove it.

Q: Why do I have to prove it? Why can't I just say it.

A: No.

Q: Why ...

A: Just now ...

Q: ... proof on the person who believes something to be true. Let me take off my jacket; it is a bit warm here.

A: When you made your statement, you made a general statement, and I said you are free to make that general statement. But if you are specific, and say that this PAP government is a one-party government and it's corrupt, that's a very damaging statement, and I say, ""Please prove it.+

Q: Well, I've seen where a publication suggested that compliant judges were used corruptly to bankrupt your opponent. Right?

A: I took them to court and they paid damages for that.

Q: That was because of your corrupt judges.

A: Now, just a moment. The World Economic Forum and it's rival organization, IMD, listed us in their competitiveness report, had confidence in our judicial system; compared to all of the other countries, it's right on top.

Q: That's on economic ... -

A: No, no, no, no. You don't have judges who are honest and competent in economics and dishonest and corrupt in libel cases.

Q: Why not?

A: Because that's not the way we run our system. That's not the way we appoint judges. A judge has been appointed ... we have inherited the British system. Once appointed, he cannot be removed. His salaries are guaranteed under the constitution. All his perquisites cannot been diminished.

Q: So the result of these pristine, honest, uncorrupt judges is that all your political opposition is driven into exile, or bankrupted, or, in other words ...

A: Just a moment. How are they driven into exile? We do not want them in exile.

Q: Huge fines.

A: Come off it. Let's go through individuals, right?

Q: OK.

A: Chee Soon Juan is not in exile.

Q: As of today he's not.

A: No, he is not. Why should he be in exile? There is a man called Jeyaretnam who's been--

Q: Before you leave him, what's going to happen next week?

A: I don't know. He'll be produced in court. He'll make his defense.

Q: Right.

A: His defense is the law is unconstitutional, which I think is farfetched.

Q: Right. So then he'll be either jailed or fined. Right?

A: He won't be jailed. Nobody has been jailed yet on the first offense. He'll be fined. He'll refuse to pay his fine, as he said.

Q: Right.

A: He held a meeting with the foreign correspondents at lunch and said he's not going to pay, he's going to go to jail. Well, that's his choice.

Q: Right.

A: So.

Q: So when that happened in the U.S. 220 years ago, the newsmen were fined, they went to jail, and the people turned against the government of John Adams and elected Thomas Jefferson.

A: (Sighs) You know, we are not America. And the people in Singapore are not going to react that way. And the other leader of the opposition, he booted out from his party and took over. That's already on record. The opposition leader said he just is giving the opposition a bad name. And I think that's correct.

Q: So why don't you let him?

A: I'm letting him.

Q: If you provide them with the ...

A: No, no, no.

Q: ... to speak up against you, and people don't like what they're saying, what are you worried about?

A: There are certain rules of the game which he has got to observe, and he has observed them. Since 1992 he's played by those rules. He had all the publicity he wanted. It did him no good.

Now he comes back and says, ""It's because the law is stacked against me. I'm going to change this constitution.+

Q: Isn't that what happened in the Soviet Union? With Scharansky?

A: That's a very different proposition. He wants to change this law. He stands for Parliament, gets into Parliament, then moves a motion; he changes the law.

Q: And why ...

A: You are not going to change me in this one encounter. I am not going to change you.

Q: No, but I'm trying to understand your thought processes.

A: [Laughs] My thought processing has been patterned and reinforced over forty years of government, of dealing with all kinds of people, and of governing a society and making sense out of the society. And this is how we've got from nearly 0 to perhaps 70-plus percent.

Q: But you've shown that you're flexible. Let me give you an example. When you were asked yesterday and today about Asian values versus Western values, you said ""when we talk about Asian values, we're talking about Confucian values'', and you somewhat modified what had been a charge that ""Western civilization was decadent.'' You don't say that any more.

A: I've never said that Western civilization was decadent. What I said was in writing and in a conversation that I had with Fareed Zakaria of Foreign Affairs, and what I put down in that exchange was, ""I see signs of what I consider unacceptable patterns of conduct which I wouldn't like to have happen to us.+

Q: All right. Let me give you another example of your flexibility. Your son was here at Davos three years ago, and I asked him how he proposed to maintain a barrier against information flowing into Singapore if there was such a thing as the Internet and computers coming.

A: Yes.

Q: And he said, very firmly, ""We will maintain our ability to control the flow of information.'' Now, that turned out to be nonsense. You have acknowledged that in the interviews today.

A: Yes. Because technology has overwhelmed us. All right?

Q: Exactly. But you're not standing there saying it hasn't happened. You're recognizing it's happening. And so if it's happening with the flow of information through the Internet, why don't you let it happen with newspapers and magazines?

A: But that's a different proposition. The flow of information through the Internet - how many Internet users do we have? About 10 percent of the population? (AIDE: Fifteen.) Fifteen percent. They are the thinking part of the population, fairly well informed, well-exposed. There is this lumpen mass in any society, 30, 40 percent, who never got through junior high school. We don't want this barrage day after day ... the society has got to adjust and evolve step by step.

Q: Now, you're using Marxian language, with the "lumpen'' proletariat.

A: Well, I have been influenced by their vocabulary. They are not able to rise up to the levels of education which the majority has.

Q: But that's just a function of time, isn't it?

A: No, it is not. It's a function of nature.

Q: You mean there is a ... somewhere it's written that 30 percent of the people of a given population will be ...

A: Some population ...

Q: ... maintained in ignorance?

A: Some populations are more talented than others.

Q: I don't see what you mean by that. Because in a population in a place like Singapore, where you have an elite, you have a middle-class, and you have a lower class, or a people who are not in poverty, but are not well off.

Is that fair?

A: Yes. In broad classification, yes.

Q: All right. Now, you're saying that's the way it must be?

A: That's the way it is.

Q: Well, I'm asking, can it be ...

A: Well, we are trying to reduce what's at the bottom of the pile.

Q: Right.

A: And it's hard work.

Q: And knowledge is part of the way.

A: Yes.

Q: And the way to get knowledge is through the Internet, and through books and publications and periodicals.

A: Yes.

Q: Why, if you believe that, why are you restricting the circulation of publications?

A: Ah, let me make it simpler. For the coming generations ... just yesterday I had lunch with a group of Americans. One of them was Sun Microsystems, a scientific officer called Cage. And he's working hard in Singapore getting all our schools linked up to the Internet and wired up to each other, and teaching them how to access information. That it will include eventually whether it's 30 or more or less percent of the people who are not going to make the grade. But their parents are not capable of going through that process. It's too late. They are in their forties and fifties. We are trying to get them re-educated, but it is not easy.

Q: But if you're trying, what kind of way of trying is to restrict circulation of printed publications?

A: No, we don't restrict publications. We restrict publications only when they refuse to publish our right of reply.

Q: So ...

A: We've gone through ... we've refined this to quite an argument, and I had brushes against many of the U.S. publications: Time, Newsweek, Wall Street Journal. They used to write and refused to publish our corrections.

Q: You get more space in newspapers, thanks to me, from newspapers who are eager to give you a chance to reply, than from almost any other source.

A: So? But when we do give a sharp reply, it is not published.

Q: Gee, I doubt that. When you get colourful and sharp in your replies, it's well-covered. For example, when you gave an interview and said that Vice President Gore's remarks in Malaysia were ""unnecessarily rude,+ that got good play.

A: Where? In the U.S. press?

Q: You bet.

A: I haven't noticed that.

Q: Oh, by the way, when you saw him ... did you see him here?

A: Just passing each other, that's all, at the conference hall.

Q: So you didn't have a conversation?

A: No. I thought he was silly. He hurt Mahathir for no rhyme or reason. It wasn't the way to do it. You are going there as a guest. You don't have to go, because if the host is not deserving and you don't want to enjoy his hospitality, then don't go. But having gone there, and at a set dinner, to go there, stiffly shake hands, make a speech, then walk out and not eat their dinner shows a certain uncouthness in Asian eyes. There's a subtlety about how you insult people. There was no subtlety there.

Q: Now, here I am, in your suite, as your guest, interviewing you ...

A: No, but that's different.

Q: But I'm asking tough questions ...

A: No, no. This is ...

Q: And I'm not being unnecessarily polite ...

A: No, but this is not a public occasion, where you are invited as one of the guests, and you behave in a scandalous manner to show utter contempt and disregard for the host. I mean, you asked to see me, and I said yes.

And I expect you to ask awkward, spiky, difficult questions. That's in keeping with our respective positions.

Q: But when a statesman comes to a country and says what he thinks, or gives an unvarnished comment on human freedom, for example, you think that's wrong?

A: No, I'm not saying what he said was wrong. What I am saying was the style of doing it, the circumstances, was bad manners. If he had held a press conference after the thing was over, and made that speech, and made all those comments, directed to the world at large. But not at a formal dinner, as one of the principal guests, and walk out immediately after he had spoken and before others had spoken. Well, that's just rude.

Q: All right. You've made your point.

A: And he gave Mahathir points ... and even Mahathir's opponents ... political points.

Q: How can you, a man who fought communism and gained great credit for it, today be saying to the communists in China, the way to stay in power is to squeeze the dissidents?

A: [Laughs] I am not saying that. You are reducing it. You are caricaturing what I am saying.

Q: All right. Then you say it with whatever subtlety you want.

A: I am hoping that they will make this transition from a one-party totally dominant and controlled society into a more loose, open, normal kind of society, like Taiwan, like Hongkong ... maybe not so Westernised ... over the next 20, 30 years.

Q: But you didn't say...

A: But they're not going to get there if they don't take care.

Q: You didn't say ""like Singapore''.

A: No, because they can't be like us.

Q: But isn't the model that you are...

A: No, you ... you, the Western press ... say that they are going to use us as their model. We've never offered ourselves as a model, and they are not using us as a model. They pick bits and pieces of us: how do you run your airport? Why are you so efficient? Why is your airline so efficient? Let's go make a study. They study bits of us. But we have got the bits and pieces to come together. That's something they cannot do, and they know that. They're not stupid.

Q: Senior Minister. I'm not coming to this completely fresh. I used to be Richard Nixon's speechwriter.

A: Yes.

Q: I have heard the arguments from Chinese officials about their need to crack down on dissidents, and their blandishments of someday, we'll have economic growth, and then, after a period, that economic growth will lead to political freedom. But that's not what happened. Just the opposite has happened.

A: Well, I am not here to defend them. If you want to know my opinion, I've given you my opinion. They are what they are. I'm not going to change them, and I doubt if you can change them.

Q: No. And I'm not trying to change you. I'm trying to understand why you, who recognise your impact on China, and perhaps you minimise your impact on China, the example of Singapore on China, but the example is talked about, and when you don't permit a two-party system...

A: We have more than a two-party system. There are seven or eight parties that contested in the last elections.

Q: And of the 83 seats...

A: Yes, but they lost. They lost.

Q: And they lost because...

A: They lost because...

Q: ...they had every opportunity to...

A: ... because they cannot produce an alternative, an alternative that was more attractive to the electorate than us. Look, nobody in his right mind believes that we rigged elections. We don't rig elections. There's an honest, above-board election. Like we do many other things. Because otherwise, we wouldn't be what we are.

Q: But, for example, the candidates against your party have an opportunity to have equal time on television...

A: No, not equal time. Time in accordance with the number of candidates they field. There's a proportion, worked out from British days.

Q: You keep harking back to 50-year-old laws.

A: No, not laws. These are guidelines. I field 100 per cent of the seats. You field 10 per cent of the seats. Are you entitled to my TV time?

Q: All...

A: You are entitled to 10 per cent of it.

Q: So you think that an opposition party can't grow; it has to immediately compete on an equal level overnight.

A: There's nothing to stop it from fielding 100 per cent of the seats.

Q: Let me change the subject for a minute, all right, to selective transparency. You have something that many Westerners think is good. Your monetary authority now requires private bank to declare details on non-performing loans. But the Government, the Singapore Government, offers secret inducements for companies that invest in Singapore. So there's transparency that you require on banks and non-performing loans, but there's no transparency on what the Government does to seduce, or induce, people to come in and invest.

A: I don't see any such secret blandishments. Each investor is given a set of privileges, depending on the length of time it takes him to amortise his investments. Some are long gestation, some are short gestation. And I know of no secret inducement.

Q: Well, all right.

A: Because investors have a knack of comparing notes with each other, and if you give one a privilege and you don't offer the next one, he will soon get to know, and he'll squeeze you for the same.

Q: Not necessarily. I mean...

A: Well, I don't know. I don't know enough to be able to refute completely that we don't do it, but I am not aware that we have done it.

Q: How about independent labour unions. How do you feel about them?

A: Nothing to stop them from forming independent labour unions.

Q: Really?

A: Yeah. But they can't succeed. Because the unions who are with us produce more results.

Q: But I remember the unions in the Soviet Union. They were pet unions. They were in the pocket of the employers.

A: [Laughs] But if we were stupid enough to do that, we will be down the drain in no time at all. Our workers are not stupid.

Q: So you would welcome a free, independent...

A: The American view is you must always have a competitor. We think that's a sound proposition in principle, and there's no reason why we shouldn't have competition. But we make quite sure that we stay ahead of the competition.

Q: Here comes a prickly question. You mentioned corruption and nepotism earlier today. What about Singapore? Would your son be Deputy Prime Minister if he were not your son?

A: If he were not my son, he would be the Prime Minister. I'll tell you honestly, I stopped him, because he can run faster than any of the others. But I told him it would do him no good. Just stay out of this race. And his generation, his peers, know that I am not boasting when I tell you this.

Q: So you don't foresee a dynasty?

A: I am not that bereft of satisfaction with my life that I need to live vicariously through him. In fact, if he doesn't measure up, it is better that he does not show up, because he'll just besmirch the family reputation.

Q: About your book. You just wrote a book; I bought the book.

A: Where did you buy the book?

Q: In Washington, D.C. It wasn't easy, but I found it. Have there been any negative reviews of your book in Singapore?

A: A few. Not written by Singaporeans.

Q: But published in Singapore?

A: Oh, yes. By Malaysians. Condemning it day by day. It's dutifully published. It gives me publicity. [Laughs] Look. I can stand that. Not to worry.

Q: Philosophical question. Do people have an inherent right to rebel against despotism?

A: That's one of the Confucianist concepts. That's what the Chinese leaders fear most. Revolution in China is called qi yi. Qi is ""to arise'', yi is for ""righteousness''. So when an emperor is despotic, corrupt, evil, it is a righteous cause you should rebel. This is part of the Chinese folk culture.

Q: And this is what you see as the worrying...

A: Oh, yes. Absolutely...FOUR SENTENCES OFF THE RECORD.] Look. I,ll give you an illustration of how completely... why they know they can't do a Singapore. Joseph Nye was in Beijing before he came to Singapore, so they're talking about academic standards, and how to get admissions into universities, and so on.

So this lady in Beijing University asked him, ""How do you choose your best students?'' So Joseph Nye says you've got an SAT test with 800 as perfect score. But if we had a student with say, 600, 760, not perfect score, and another 800, but this student with 760 is also a violinist, we would take him.'' And the lady said to Joseph Nye, ""Oh, we can't do that. That would be chaos. As it is, even with marks, we have a problem.''

So this question of integrity in the system just runs through the whole fabric of the administration. I don't know what the communists have done in the 40-odd years that has made this so endemic, but it's a very big problem, and will stymie their progress. So how can they follow us? It's not possible.

Q: Who are your heroes? In history?

A: History? Churchill, DeGaulle. I think Deng Xiaoping. But for him, China is down like the Soviet Union. Is it wrong to list him? Does it tell you something?

Q: About your life? [Laughs]

A: No, but it tells you what I think of him.

Q: Exactly. That's why I asked.

A: Yes. Because I have dealt with communist leaders; he's the one communist leader with whom I spoke, and who stopped in his tracks and said, ""What do you want me to do?'' He came down in 1970, just before the Vietnamese attacked Cambodia, and he'd been to Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, and he came here. He gave a spiel on why we must all unite against the Russian bear, etc etc, Cuba, Russians in South-east Asia.

So I said to him, ""Contrary to what you believe, what my neighbours want to do is to unite against you. Because you're the troublemaker, not the Soviet Union. They don't pay for the arms and the propaganda that's coming out of China on their behalf. You are the mischief maker. You are appealing to overseas Chinese to support you, over their heads, to their citizens.'' And I expected a robust denial and for him to say ""rubbish''.

But he just asked: ""What do you want me to do?'' I took a deep breath, and I said: ""Stop it. Or you are all by yourself.'' And he stopped it. It took two years to do it. And the radio broadcasts stopped. And at his age, as a lifelong communist, to see that the communist system was going to bring ruin, and persuaded his Long March Communists to do a 180- degree U-turn, that's something. There would be no China today. It would be like the Soviet Union.

Q: Richard Nixon used to talk a little bit about someone like that, about Zhou Enlai.

A: But Zhou died.

Q: Now, you and I approach the world differently when it comes to individual rights versus what you call communitarianism.

A: Yes. Well, the rights of the society as a whole must, in my view ... to make Singapore work ... be placed above the rights of the individual, otherwise it will not work. If everybody is out after his own interests, regardless of everybody else, the society will just disintegrate.

Q: But it's never that stark. It's not individual rights must be supreme over the state, or the state must be supreme over the individual. It's similar, not in the middle, but somewhere in between the 80-yard line. And there are a great many of us who feel that what you do is completely subjugate individual rights to an elite view of what's right for everybody, what's best for everybody.

A: I would say, again, that's an exaggeration, a caricature of what we're trying to do. We had inherited ... look, I'm an empiricist. I'm not an ideologue. I don't believe in theories. I read about theories. I'm interested in them. But when I have a problem, I'll just solve it, and I don't care what theories solve the problem. I leave that to the Ph.D. student to figure out.

I had a conglomeration of people from all over South-east Asia and East Asia. It was never a society. They all came there because the British ran an emporium and so they wanted to make a living...And the British kept them in their pockets.

This kind of Chinese in this area, that kind of Chinese and that area; Indonesians from the Celebes in that place, and so on. It's convenient, because then nobody jells against them.

Suddenly, for some awkward reason, we became independent, which means that we could not survive unless we have a sense of community, that we owe each other some obligations as fellow citizens. And that is not easy, especially when you don't even talk one common language. We spoke different languages. It's a Tower of Babel.

Out of that non-situation, non-society, we tried to form certain common factors to make it jell. Had we gone one man, one vote, Chinese would have become the language. Then we would have died of starvation. Had we legislated and said, ""English was our national language,'' there would have been a rebellion.

So we said, ""Okay. You will study whatever language is your mother language, and you will study English because that's fair competition with everybody else, and that will be the language, the working language, of the government.''

So slowly, now, for the first time, if you speak in English, you might be understood by about 70 per cent of the population. It will never reach 100 per cent. Because even now, some of the young ones cannot pick up English because they're speaking their own mother tongue at home, and they're not bright enough to capture two. So it's always a fragmented society.

But, fragmented or not, we've got to make the place work. Now, in order to be able to defend ourselves, because we have slightly more than our neighbours, and that triggers off envy and many other thoughts; like the Israelis, we have a people's army where, at the drop of a hat, we can raise a quarter-of-a-million people.

But as the recruits form about 30, 40,000, to get them all together to fight for Singapore, we've got to give them an idea that this is important. Whether you're a wealthy man's son, or you're a hawker's son, you will do this. It's taken a good part of 30-plus years to get that concept into them.

Q: This is not the first time that you've used the Israeli example.

A: Yes.

Q: And there, individual rights...

A: No, but they have a whole history...

Q: ...are God given.

A: No, but they are homogeneous. They were persecuted. They are all Jews. They all read the Talmud.

Q: No. You've got religious Jews, you've got secular Jews...

A: Yes, that may be so, but they are Jews.

Q: It's a deeply fractionated society.

A: But when Israel goes to war, they leave whatever they are doing and come back to fight.

Q: Right.

A: I'm not sure they'd do that for Singapore.

Q: But you can't look at it as a sclerotic situation. You took what you took.

A: Yeah.

Q: You developed it into a society.

A: No, it's developing into, like a society. It's not a society yet.

Q: So what's it going towards? Is it going to be elite-run forever or will it ...

A: No, it cannot be. I don't quite follow the dichotomy in your argument. As you educate them to higher and higher levels, that elite will thicken. It ceases to be such a small elite. Must do. It's already happening.

In 1965 ... and I made this point in one of my speeches ... If we had the top 200 both in government and in business on the same 707 aircraft and it crashed, that's the end of Singapore. It could not have carried on.

Today, you could have them in two jumbos and crash, and it would still carry on. Because we have duplicated many of them. Therefore it would cease gradually to be a small elite.

Q: But is it on a slow incline, or do you see the opportunity now...

A: [Laughs] That's a matter for the younger generation to decide. I am taking a back seat view. A younger man is in charge. My successor is about 57. How old is he? (Aide: Fifty-seven)

Q: Come on, now. You're still in charge.

A: No, I'm not.

Q: If you say, ""No, let's not do that,'' they won't do it.

A: No, you're wrong. You are wrong. No, we run a system, right? I have seen what's happened to Indonesia, but I knew what's going to happen to Singapore if I did not prepare for succession. Because it was so easy just to carry on. I couldn't be removed. But if I had institutionalised it around me, it would have collapsed. So I institutionalised it around the office.

Q: Yes, but you have...

A: No, let's just hang on a bit. They are important. For me to leave Singapore and be here in Davos, I write to the Prime Minister and ask for leave of absence. It's not a formality. It is a statement of my constitutional position. He knows it. He's my secretary (gesturing to his Principal Private Secretary). He would put up the draft and remind me that I've got to take leave.

Q: So what's your point there, that...

A: My point is: I cannot order the government machine to work in the way I want, because I'm not the Prime Minister. I haven't taken the oath as Prime Minister. The President didn't appoint me. He appointed him. Then the Prime Minister appointed me as a minister in his Cabinet.

Now, I'm not going to pretend that I do not have influence. In the final analysis, if I totally disagree with a policy, and I think it's ruinous, I'll stand up in Parliament and attack it, and go public, and shake public opinion against the policy. Now, that they know.

Q: And so you think public opinion is what drives decisions in...

A: Absolutely. Yeah.

Q: So if public opinion is paramount, then what you,re suggesting is ... (BEGIN TAPE 1, SIDE B)

Q: ... The proper direction. [General conversation; length of interview]

Q: Is there any harsh question I have not asked that you were prepared for and would like to unload your answer on me?

A: Well, I think I don't have any answers to give. It's a simple point I make, and I made it to Joe Nye. I am not a model for anything. I just want to make Singapore work.

Whether it's good to be a model or not a model, that's for students of sociology and politics to decipher later. So I borrow in an eclectic way. I learn, and I never stop learning, because I think once you stop learning, you have got to die.

Q: We have a saying, when you're through changing, you're through. Well, I hope you'll keep changing, and more rapidly...

A: [Laughs] We are not doing too badly.

Q: I appreciate this opportunity, and I'm grateful to you for it. A: I haven't changed you, but that I didn't expect, and you haven't changed me, and I don't think you expected to.

Q: Well, I enjoyed it. I hope you did, too.

A: [Laughs] You are not a silly man, and I don't give you silly answers.

Q: I hope to see you again.

李光耀:一个亚洲政治家眼中的中国改革开放道路

     新加坡总统府一栋普通二层小楼,午时六点,窗外华灯初上、高楼星星点点;楼内窗明几净,没有窗帘,约50平方米的房间内只有三大件物品:办公桌、会客桌、三件套的沙发,简洁而不奢华。 
  整齐叠放着数十份文件的办公桌就倚在靠窗的边角,一副黑色边框眼镜安静地躺桌边。1.78米的李光耀站了起来,温和笑了笑,"我刚刚去北京参加了奥运会的开幕式"。 
  从海外观察者的角度来审视,回望中国改革开放三十周年之时,这位85岁的老人是一个不可忽略的人物,而在其身后的新加坡则亦是绕不过去的存在――新加坡是中国改革开放30年中唯一由国家领导人明确要向之学习的国家。 
  对1978年的中国而言,历史对75岁的高龄、第三度上台的邓小平赋予的历史使命是:排除来自保守派的阻挠,尝试对当时国内的经济体制进行全方位的改革,并谋求将中国的经济体制从计划经济体制转轨到市场经济上。其时站在邓小平面前的,并没有现成的模板可言,一切都在试错的过程中。彼时,以华人为主体的三个经济体香港、台湾与新加坡就成为重要的外部引力,推动国内改革之局。 
  在这三个经济体中,如果说香港与台湾主要在经济方面予以大陆助力,推动大陆在基建、交通、资讯、信息技术等产业领域与国际接轨的话,那么新加坡则在政治、经济及社会治理等的"国家层面"角色成为中国改革开放的一个重要镜鉴,提供一个国家在发展道路包括经济、社会和政治道路的探索样本。 
  30年前的11月,中国的"改革开放的总设计师"邓小平从北京出发,登上新加坡巴耶利巴机场,与时任新加坡总理的李光耀促膝长谈,"实用主义"的邓小平与"理性主义"的李光耀就中国未来改革的道路选择达成共鸣,邓小平将新加坡列为中国学习的榜样。 
  再一次来自新加坡的互动是,继农村改革之后,1984年中国做出了经济体制改革的决定,邓小平并于是年第一次考察深圳经济特区并发表重要讲话,李光耀则于随后的1985年造访深圳,探察中国建设经济特区的经验得失,并从此每年派员观察深圳改革动向;1990年中国受到西方的经济封锁,李光耀顶着巨大的压力造访中国,并于当年10月3日促成新中建交;1992年,在邓小平破除左右两派的争论发表了著名的"南巡"讲话,同时盛赞新加坡的发展模式,随后李光耀迅即访问中国,由是推动新加坡资金第二轮投资大陆高潮的形成,并促成了两岸第一次破冰的1993年"汪辜会谈"及苏州工业园的创建;2008年10月23日,李再度促成《中新自由贸易协定》签署,成为中国与东盟国家首份自由贸易协定,对中国―东盟自贸区的建成喻有泰山之重。 
  在近门处会客桌旁的一张沙发坐了下来,李光耀将双手合十放于腰间,目光炯炯,岁月的年轮并未在他思考的轨道上留下碎石障碍,提起某件趣事时不禁哈哈大笑,间或配以坚定手势以加强言语的确定性。他有着超强的记忆力,历史的某个时间、地点,30年间的细节信手拈来。 
  这位被誉为"新加坡国父"的老人,以其毕生心智,"把新加坡从第三世界带到了第一世界"(注:联合国秘书长安南语),并在裕廊工业园区、创立公积金制度、成立廉政公署、进行教育改革等多项政策取得成功,而这些都将会成为未来中国改革开放继续前行的重要经验财产。 
  但是,中国今天面临的国内外形势已经与30年前完全不同,改革开放带来的财富并没有惠至每一位国民,需要处理的问题也是堆积如山:经济改革还需要完善、社会改革有待继续、政治改革面临巨大压力,改革的攻坚性质包括重构现有的利益格局。然而,值得庆幸的是,现今中国的基本市场制度已经确立,并且已和国际社会深深整合,三十年改革开放的精神实质已经隐含到整个社会运转和人们的日常生活之中,为下一个三十年深化改革奠定了良好基石。 
  作为中国改革开放三十周年的亲历者,李光耀与毛泽东、邓小平、江泽民、胡锦涛中国四代领导人均有交集,并与中国第二代至第四代领导人私交深厚。而从高层获取的信息到亲历一线的探知,中新两国经商文化的不同、制度及法律等层面的差异,李光耀身在其中,以一个局外者而言,更有许多闳远见解。 
  中国改革开放的宏观镜像 
  "邓小平是我所见过的领导人当中给我印象最深刻的一位。"这是李光耀对中国"改革开放的总设计师"邓小平的评价。 
  在1978年,历史赋予邓小平的任务是把中国引出计划经济的死胡同,并创建一种能容纳市场机制的新体制。但他执政之时已经75岁了,历史给他的时间很短暂。 
  在随后邓小平的探路中,中国的改革开放先后历经数个阶段:第一阶段为十一届三中全会伊始,建立包括深圳在内的四个经济特区进行试点,并提出在公有制基础上的有计划的商品经济的提法;第二个阶段是伴随着邓小平的"南巡"讲话,1992年确立社会主义市场经济目标,形成总体开放格局;第三个阶段为2001年跨入世贸组织大门,在世界共同的商业规则下融入全球经济。 
  总体而言,中国的改革采取了先易后难、先外围后核心的改革策略,从而在很多方面形成了良性循环:改革造就初步的经济繁荣;初步繁荣支撑着改革继续深入;深入改革造就进一步繁荣;经济繁荣再支持改革。 
  新加坡于彼时的角色是作为中国改革开放的历史照面出现。一方面邓小平一直比较欣赏新加坡的政治运作及经济发展机制;另一方面,李光耀经常与中国第二、三、四代领导人会晤,既了解了中国改革开放实情,又提出许多有益建议与忠告。 
  "中国的开放政策给我印象最深的特征当属他的果断坚决和不遗余力" 
  从1980年开始,至贯穿于整个90年代,李光耀几乎每一年均来到中国,不仅与中国的高层会商,同时亦深入到许多中国的城市,包括香港、广州、深圳、武汉、南京等,从高层获取的信息到亲至一线的探知,促使其对中国的改革开放历程有独特的见解。 
  《21世纪》:资政先生,邓小平先生于1978年11月正式出访新加坡,并与您有4天促膝长谈。依照您在其《回忆录》中的说法,"他(邓小平)在1978年所看到的新加坡,为中国人要争取的最基本的成就提供了一个参考标准"――这当中,您认为他最关注的是推动中国改革开放哪一领域的内容? 
  李光耀:邓小平最关心的问题是什么,这一点我只能猜测。在当时,我们谈得最多的是新加坡如何利用外资企业推动经济活动和发展、为人们创造就业和培训机会的,这些机会既包括培养优秀车间工人,也包括培养大批主管、经理、工程师和其他专业人才――我相信这一定是邓小平最为关注的。 
  我们当时的经济增长具体表现就是建立公平公正的社会。每个家庭都拥有自己的家园,良好的医疗保障、子女能够得到良好教育,以及各种娱乐设施。他看到了我们是如何利用资本主义方法建设社会主义的。 
  《21世纪》:改革开放的第三年,也就是1980年,您第二次访问了中国。这次造访您感觉与上一次有什么大的不同?1984年10月,中国共产党十二届三中全会召开,提出中国社会主义经济是公有制基础上的有计划的商品经济,随后包括价格体系改革在内的经济改革措施全面铺开,那么您80年代中期看到的又与80年代初期有何不同? 
  李光耀:1980年我来访的时候,当时中国的改变还不是十分巨大和明显。中国的高层领导人非常热心学习我们管理经济的方法,以及我们的卫生服务收费措施,从原价20%的C级病房到全原价的A级病房,为了减少浪费和滥用,都得到了政府大力资助。几年后中国也借鉴我们的经验取消了免费医疗,实施了一套更有效的卫生服务措施,而且这个措施还在不断调整以满足高、中、低层收入人员的不同需求。 
  到20世纪80年代中期,我每一次访问都能看到明显的进步。经济活动越来越多,私人企业越来越多,小商小贩越来越多,社会越来越繁华。人们的穿着打扮有了变化,女性越来越时尚。 我能感觉到整个社会的发展进步。 
  中国的开放政策给我印象最深的特征当属他的果断坚决和不遗余力,因而所有的决策都能得到贯彻执行。中国有许多优秀得力的干部,这就保证了中央决策和命令的贯彻执行。 
  (注:八九十年代,在几乎年年访问中国期间,每次访问李光耀均会花一个多星期,由一位中国副部长陪同游览各省。在这八到十天内,在中国各地考察,长时间的共处,让其有机会对中国领导人的思想和背景有更深入的了解。) 
  《21世纪》:1992年是一个特殊的年份,历经"八九"风波之后,"左"的势力在"要分清两种改革开放观"的旗号下,试图把中国拉回到文革前,借政治运动来解决国内的重重矛盾。1992年秋,要开中共十四大,如果左派的政治主张在十四大占了上风,邓小平的改革开放便会付之东流。这是不是邓小平决定"南巡"的重要出发点? 
  李光耀:当时之前,在许多经历过长征的老一辈中间充满了争论和疑虑,他们认为开放势必会令中国失去社会主义性质,因而忧心忡忡,邓小平不得不做出南巡的决定,向人们解读开放政策。 
  幸运的是,邓小平获胜了。 
  (注:1992年1月至2月,88岁高龄的邓小平视察了深圳、珠海、上海各地,发表了一系列重要的讲话,即"南巡讲话"。邓小平南巡之后,中国改变了1984年提出的建立有计划的商品经济的提法,正式提出建立和发展社会主义市场经济。彼时,以邓小平的"南巡讲话"作为指引,1992年10月12日中国共产党第十四次全国代表大会召开,在其历史上第一次明确提出了建立社会主义市场经济体制的目标模式。) 
  《21世纪》:邓小平先生的"南巡"讲话之后,中国的改革开放虽然进入了第二个阶段,但同样又面临放开管制之后经济过热的问题,譬如1992年下半年开始出现经济过热,1993年通货膨胀率为14.7%,1994年通货膨胀率达24%,在这段时间,中国的领导人有没有向您透露有关向改革开放往何处去的信息? 
  李光耀:关于改革开放,高层领导人没有透露任何重要的信息。不过,他们不时就通货膨胀问题与我讨论;他们问过通货膨胀什么时候才会过高。我说这取决于中国的生产力是否得到完全利用、工人是否供不应求。只要生产力得到完全利用,劳动力资源充足,适当的膨胀并不会引起通货膨胀。 
 
两个工业园:"我们在文化

  和商业思路上存在很大的分歧"

  李光耀对于苏州工业园区至今怀着特殊的感情。

  苏州工业园区以中新苏州工业园区开发有限公司(CSSD)为开发主体,由中新双方财团组成:中方财团由中粮、中远、中化、华能等14家国内大型企业集团出资组建;新方财团由新加坡政府控股公司等联合组成,并于1994年5月12日,苏州工业园区破土启动。

  苏州工业园在起始之时承载着李光耀将新加坡的制度、管理、产业等软体"复制"于中国大陆的深厚冀望,但在实际的双方共建工业园路途中,商业思想的巨大差异,使其理想化的模式"触礁"。李光耀后来在其《回忆录》中罕有地用了2821字来回忆建设苏州工业园区的曲折,并感慨:"苏州五年,让我们见识了中国一层层行政机关和易变的经商文化的错综复杂。我们如今对中国的制度有了更深入的了解,学会怎么绕道而行,回避各种路障,最终使中方把苏州工业园区计划继续进行下去,争取部分成功而不是彻底失败"。

  继苏州工业园之后,作为中国和新加坡两国政府合作建设的第二个项目中新天津生态城亦于2008年启动,该生态城同时亦是世界上第一个国家间合作开发建设的生态城市。与苏州工业园区不同,该生态城未来若能取得成功,其模式将会在中国其它城市复制。

  《21世纪》:1990年中国开始开放上海浦东;1992年9月,您在造访苏州时,时任新加坡副总理王鼎昌根据此次造访绘出苏州工业园的蓝图,并得到江泽民、李鹏、朱�基、李岚清等中国领导人的支持。邓小平先生南巡时也强调,要向新加坡学习,并且要比新加坡做得更好。现在看来,苏州工业园对中国其它工业园区有何借鉴?您认为苏州工业园与其90公里外的上海浦东互动关系如何?

  李光耀:它给工业园建设设立了一个基准点。工业园的规划与发展,布局良好、干净整洁、绿色自然,在此70平方公里的土地上工业、商业、住宅及政府服务各行各业济济一堂,设有休闲娱乐区,其中包括一个面向金鸡湖的高尔夫球场。这种模式已被其他许多工业园拿来学习和采用。

  事实上,长江三角洲的崛起要归功于上海的发展,连苏州工业园都从上海这样的龙头发展中受益。工业园区的价值在于与90公里之外的上海做生意成本较低;只要建设良好的公路交通,不管是土地、劳动力还是其他成本都会降低。因此上海和苏州工业园之间是协同作用。

  (注:苏州工业园区是中国和新加坡两国政府的重要合作项目,开创了中外经济技术互利合作的新形式。1994年2月11日,国务院下达《关于开发建设苏州工业园区有关问题的批复》;2月26日,中新两国政府在北京正式签署了合作开发建设苏州工业园区的协议。)

  《21世纪》:一种观点认为,苏州工业园学习的是裕廊工业园的模式,但是并没有学到裕廊的精髓,在您的自传中您详述了中新双方就建立工业园所经历的挫折和努力,新加坡方面是如何寻找到越过障碍的解决方法的?

  李光耀:开始的时候,我们不理解为什么中央政府和苏州市政府关注的重点会有如此大的不同。

  中央政府希望完全借鉴这一概念,包括规划、布局、工业、商业、住宅和娱乐设施的整合,所有这些"软件"方面的东西都要加以规划和集中。而苏州市政府关心的是硬件设施的快速发展,因为硬件建设的进步会比较明显,因而他们打算放弃已经同意了的总体规划。

  让我们感到惊奇的是,我们发现我们在文化和商业思路上存在很大分歧,我们无法理解对方做事的方法,"关系"和派系等因素,还有他们决策做事的方法,根本不顾及自己是否已经脱离了原已同意了的总体规划。我不得不去和江泽民主席交流,请他指示南京,即苏州市政府应遵从中央政府的决定。

  总的来说,中国领导人最初希望借鉴新加坡的"软件"设施,最后苏州方面学到了比如管理系统和文化等这方面的先进经验。但有一个难题就是,从苏州派过来学习的干部都是些底层人员,而高级领导干部并没有来学习。因此当这些干部返回之后,对在新加坡所学知识的应用个别时候会持部分保留,因为他们的上级领导不明白我们如此做事的原因。所以总的来说,经过十多年的发展,可以说已经成功了80%以上。

  《21世纪》:现在中国的许多省份,比如说广西及唐山邀请新加坡将苏州工业园区的模式复制到他们那里,你认为苏州工业园的模式可以复制吗?

  李光耀:不同地区必须从工业园中学到适合自己环境条件的因素并加以采用和适应。不能盲目照搬苏州工业园的模式。依样画葫芦的方法是行不通的。

  《21世纪》:继苏州工业园后,由中新两国政府倡议天津中-新生态城市建设已经破土动工。中新生态城的建设基于什么样的考量?这是否意味着未来的中-新合作将不再局限于工业园区模式?

  李光耀:中国和新加坡的合作已经向前推进至天津的一个生态城市建设。我们在过去半个世纪所学到的知识和经验可以为他们所用,从而在发展工业和服务业的同时防治污染和毒害,防止生态被毁坏,特别是空气和水质量的保持。

  与另外的工业园合作、传播同样的技术和知识并不会增加社会新的价值。中国的未来应该从如何保护水资源的清洁和充足、保持环境绿色环保,并避免过度利用能源等新方法中受益良多。

  (注:2007年4月,温家宝和吴作栋共同提议,在中国北方水质性缺水、不占耕地等资源约束条件下,共同建设一座生态城市,并做到能复制、能实行、能推广,起到示范性作用。同年11月,两国政府签署了合作框架协议。2008年9月28日,中新天津生态城正式开工。)

  改革开放前行中的得失与争议

  中国改革开放的未来三十年来到一个新的十字路口。改革开放中存在一些问题有待解决,投资与消费、内需与外需的不均衡;经济增长过度依赖工业,服务业发展滞后;大量耕地转做工业用地,农业基础弱化。从中长期来看,这些问题可能成为制约经济增长的要因。

  "许多批评都是针对改革计划

  快速实施过程中的错误和瑕疵"

  以2004年围绕着国企改革的"朗顾之争",至2005年7月国务院发展研究中心一份"医改基本不成功"的报告,对于改革的反思此起彼伏。

  就改革开放三十年的成就而言,最大的成就是以经济的腾飞解决了经济方面的难题,而随着大众法制意识和人民民主意识普及与提高,改革开放将逐步涉及到诸多曾经回避的难点,如体制改良、利益阶层矛盾等深水区。邓小平把改革开放的成就与难题都留给了他的继任者,对继任者而言,经济成就是其背依基础,难题是政治及社会改革开放的空间。

  《21世纪》:1999年3月22日,中国启动了西部大开发规划;2003年9月10日,中国实施东北地区等老工业基地振兴战略。多年过去,沿海与西部、内地省份之间差距不仅没有缩小,反而加大了。

  李光耀:省份之间增长率的不平等是无法避免的。因此必然形成内地省份的人民无法获得平等发展的感觉。他们远离入海口,远离市场、投资和出口贸易。他们会认为自己毫无竞争优势,这种情绪是难以避免的。如今中央强调"和谐社会",正加大力度在内地、西南、西部和西北省份进行基础设施建设。他们也被允许可以向投资者提供特殊的经济鼓励政策。这会缩小省份间的差距。但它无法完全填补这个差距,因为近海及近河的地理优势是无法均衡的。美洲大陆也有同样的问题,东西海岸的城市要比内地城市更为发达。

  《21世纪》:新加坡当年也曾经遭遇过产业转移的阵痛,中国目前沿海城市也在面临相似的情形,土地、劳动力和原材料成本不断上升,有迹象显示部分公司正往一些低成本国家转移,例如越南、印尼和印度。从您的经验来看如何面新相应的产业调整和升级?

  李光耀:在全球化竞争变得如此激烈之时,每一个国家都面对同样的问题,竞争者凭借低成本的生产基地,以同样的商品同样的服务进入市场。新加坡方面,我们必须对我们的劳动力进行再教育,以吸引更多新兴工业,提升价值链,对旧工业进行迁移。当然,产业转移及升级的问题,所有国家都面临这个问题,马来西亚、泰国,很快越南也会加入进来。

  《21世纪》:自2004年起,围绕着中国国企改革中国有资产的流失,以"朗顾之争"为起点,中国国内对国企改革进行了激辩,形成未来中国国企改革前途乐观及失望两个极端。中国的国有企业占据着国民经济的重要命脉,新加坡拥有一些实力雄厚的国有企业,例如淡马锡(Temasek),中国的国企如何才能产生更多的淡马锡?

  李光耀:新加坡的国有企业从一开始就明白,要生存就必须竞争。国家不会资助他们,如果他们一再亏损,就只好关门倒闭。这些企业中多数可以独立出口寻求增长,必须面对竞争求生存。因此他们非常重视节约成本、提高生产力,并利用合作经营和熟练工人,使用最好的机器设备改善产品质量。中国的国有企业并没有这样的竞争压力,因此一旦市场开放,许多企业无法迅速变通适应竞争,将不得不靠国家的资助生存。但是据我所知,中国部分国企正在改变并不断发展。

  《21世纪》:自2004年起由国企产权改革发端,社会上关于改革问题和方向的激烈争论从经济学界迅速扩展到整个学界,并通过网络等媒介,上升为全社会广泛参与的一场关于改革开放何处去的大讨论。有些人认为改革开放成本的承担者和改革成果的享受者完全错位,即承担改革成本多的社会群体享受到的改革成果少,而承担改革成本少的社会群体享受改革的成果比较多?

  李光耀:目前许多批评都是针对改革计划快速实施过程中的错误和瑕疵。举例来说,当各个城市都在竞争GDP的增长时,增长幅度成了评价市长成绩的标准,而忽略了其是否为生产性投资,是否符合长期发展要求。市长们一心关注的是GDP数字的增长,而忽略了其长期增值的能力。结果,他们忽略了环境、忽略了长远规划,更糟的是,许多基础设施工程在临近的数个城市重复复制,比如珠江三角洲区域内临近的数个国际机场建设就是一种资本投资的浪费。这就是利用不完善的绩效指标一味追求高速度的代价。

  《21世纪》:2005年,中国主席胡锦涛提出了构建"和谐社会"的主张。其目的是探索创新型发展模式,探索分享型改革,让民众享有更多改革成果。公平与效率相对小国来说容易,而对大国则难,怎么让中国社会在获得效率的同时,民众尽享公平的果实?

  李光耀:是的,如果新加坡赶得上中国的一个省大小,我们如要确保每个人都分享公平,就必然会面对更多的困难。发展过程中不可能让每个人都平等的获得财富。回到铁饭碗时代,我们就无法取得进步。不过,弱势群体、教育水平低的群体也不必恐慌自己会被遗弃,因为他们也将获得得体的住房、卫生保障,子女也拥有平等的机会接受中学及大学教育。

  特区的作用:

  "你就必须去爬增值的梯子"

  1979年7月15日国家正式批准广东、福建在对外经济活动中实行"特殊政策、灵活措施",推出深圳、珠海、厦门、汕头这四个经济特区作为试点,中国改革开放整体棋盘由此全面激活。

  在中国改革开放三十周年的历史进程中,有两方面的互动作用值得关注:一是作为改革开放前沿的特区及其省份的示范带动作用;二是根据经济特区或是沿海省份的发展经验,来自高层方面对一些政策的纠偏或是进程的转向指导。

  《21世纪》:资政先生,深圳经济特区是中国改革开放政策的一个重要起点,您曾经4次造访深圳(1985、1990、2000、2005),并评价深圳说:"中国不能没有深圳,她是中国改革试验田,深圳的试验取得成功,就说明邓小平提出的中国特色社会主义的道路走得通。"深圳市原市委书记李灏认为,您"对特区的功能、特区的意义,比我们理解的还透彻"。您是如何看待深圳在整个改革开放过程中的地位的?中国共产党正在积极推进政治体制的改革。深圳经济特区在这项改革中会发挥什么样的功能,将会扮演什么角色?

  李光耀:深圳加入香港自由市场经济是很合理的。深圳的高速发展靠的是充足的土地资源、廉价的水资源、能源和劳动力。许多香港的工业和服务业都到深圳发展,将这里作为一个成本低廉的生产基地。我已经有超过几年没有去过深圳了。关于它的深入改革我现在是没有资格提出建议的。

  广东省委书记汪洋最近访问新加坡时告诉我,深圳和其他珠江三角洲的沿海城市一样,都因不断上升的工资和成本而感受到了成本的压力。广东必须寻求高附加值的制造业,否则就将停滞不前。汪洋书记说,广州在华南地区的角色定位已经被考虑进入下一个五年计划。他已经和国家发改委谈过,不仅仅是深圳,而是广东所有的工业企业造就了广东,并加速整个珠江三角洲盆地,包括广西、云南和其他南方地区发展过程中的地位。

  (注:以仅仅327.5平方公里的土地,深圳经济特区于2007年创造了6765.41亿元GDP,被誉为中国所有经济特区中最成功的试点。继国务院温家宝总理于2008年全国两会期间表态"深圳特区还要办下去"之后,11月19日广东省经济特区工作会议在时隔12载之后重开,以谋求在新的形势下,特区效应的最大化。)

  《21世纪》:您是否关注到去年汪洋在广东发起的一轮解放思想的运动,假如中国推动新一轮的改革,广东还能象过去80年代一样,发挥它的作用吗?

  李光耀:我想现在的人是无法重复80年代人们所做的事的。20世纪80年代是一个简单的年代,你们刚刚接手香港的低端工业,从农业步入纺织、塑胶和所有低端产业,你们的发展是非常迅速的。如今工资水平升高了,土地成本升高了,你就必须去爬增值的梯子。换句话说,你们的发展现在要依靠更高质量的投资,引入更多资本、更多机器、更多计算机,以及可以利用这些设备工作的受过良好教育的高素质人才。

  所以你们必须转变,如果你们依照其他国家或新加坡的发展路子,即用更复杂的投资升级经济的增值效应,并相应升级服务于这种高端经济的城市人口,那么你们的教育水平和技能水平、工程、IT都必须依次提升,这才是困难的部分。如果你们走的过快,人口升级就跟不上。旧的工人无法迅速改变适应环境便要返回学校。这也是我们面临的问题。

对几代领导人的评价:

  "不同的阶段他们扮演不同的角色"

  《21世纪》:最近中国从政府到民间都在进行改革开放30周年的总结和反思,这30年来,您一直关心和考察中国的改革进程,而且跟我们的第二代,第三代和第四代领导人都有很深的接触,您怎么评价这三代领导人在中国改革进程中,扮演了怎样的角色?

  李光耀:不同的阶段他们扮演不同的角色。第一个阶段是邓小平和江泽民及朱�基。他们所必须做的是打破旧模式,推动公有制企业和公有制体系向以利润为导向的企业过渡,不管是私有还是公有,于是他们不再是时常亏损,而是更加注重盈亏。我认为第一阶段应该划到2000年,从1979到2000年,这个阶段是个困难重重的时期;我得说,朱�基的最后五年政府取得了重大突破,他改变了体制,加入了WTO,加入WTO又会迫使你去改变体制而且还会继续推动你改变并保持竞争力。

  胡锦涛的目标是平衡沿海与内地的发展,因为从1978年到2000年,当他在2002年接任之时,沿海省份与西北、西部和西南地区贫穷省份之间的差异已经非常巨大。我想这项工作还在进行中,政府正努力在西部地区和欠发达地区建设基础设施以带动发展,对向这些地区投资的人给予特殊的投资政策,因为西部地区远离入海口,出口成本过高。所以投资西部就意味着你的产品也要在西部销售或在中国国内市场销售,也许不久以后,随着中国和中亚、苏联或俄罗斯联系的加强,也可以向这些国家出口。但这是一个长远的考虑,长远的意思大概就是30到40年的时间。但我坚信西部省份最终也会像临海或者临江临河省份那样发达繁荣。

  如果拿美国来看,你会发现两条海岸线―东海岸和西海岸,内地城市除了芝加哥以外都赶不上这些沿海城市的发达繁华、人口众多。而芝加哥是因为临近圣劳伦斯河和大湖区,可以通航入海,运输成本依然低廉。所以我相信你可以提高标准,例如说60-70%的沿海省份。但从历史之初,中国的贫困地区往往都在内地,那里气候不佳,交通不便,文化和教育水平也不够高。所以那里的人民、那里的优秀学子都希望提高自身,于是他们到沿海城市或者北京的大学读书或接受特殊的培训。这种状况还会持续一段时间,因为优秀的教授和教师都不愿意到这些省份。

  这是个世界性的问题,在印度尤其是个大问题。印度有许多小村落根本没有教师愿意前往。于是孩子们跟随一些不太称职的教师上课。解决问题的唯一办法就是城镇化,建设城镇、大城镇,这样才会有足够的设施吸引教师,推动卫生服务事业的兴起,实现与世界的连接。这是所有发达国家或地区都走过的一条发展之路,欧洲、美国、日本、台湾、韩国,以及新加坡。

  来自港台、新加坡的外推力

  新加坡、台湾与香港三个华人社区的作用,对于中国改革开放三十年获取举世瞩目的成就,可堪泰山之重。

  印度、越南,甚至更多的国家都效仿过中国的改革开放策略,但却缺少类似新加坡、台湾及香港的外部助推环境。三十年来,无数的经济学者在论述中国与越南、印度等改革开放效果差异时,来自三个华人社区的推力是不能回避的存在。

  另一方面,身为"金砖四国"成员,印度因为与中国的发展模式迥异,及其模式对于发展中国家的借鉴,亦多被世人所比较。李光耀认为,两国人口加起来是全世界的40%,且为全球增长最快的经济体,中国是8%至10%,印度是6%至7%;中国是世界的工厂,印度开始时是外包服务中心。如果缺少中国和印度的参与,八国集团无法解决世界经济问题。

  《21世纪》:与其它转轨国家不同,中国的改革开放有来自香港、台湾与新加坡的重要推力。我们也会把香港、台港、新加坡这三个经济实体放在一起来比较,其实在中国改革开放30年过程中,这三个经济体对中国改革开放都发挥了很大的作用,您能不能评价和分析一下这三个经济体对中国改革开放的作用有什么不同的地方?

  李光耀:新加坡是一个多种族社会,华人虽然占了75%,但我们还有25%的马来人和印度人,这就是它与其它两个社区的区别。我认为这对中国来说是一大优势,因为她可以看到这三个华人社区是如何发展的,相似的民族、相似的语言、类似的文化,当然(台湾、香港、新加坡)大部分都来自中国的南方省份,但这对中国确实是个优势,因为他们起到很大的激励鼓舞作用:如果台湾、香港和新加坡可以做到的事,那么中国肯定也能做到。

  中国有丰富的自然资源,庞大的人口,更多的高素质人才,而且中国也确实正在做得越来越好。如果俄罗斯拥有三个这样的省份或比如说三个临波罗的海的州,全是俄罗斯人,而且不属于苏联,俄罗斯人与西方联系,那俄罗斯就会看到这些地方是多么的繁荣,并且他们还可以轻易地将其体制复制。因此我认为这就是它的价值,当然中国在之前从西方和日本得到的投资很少。但你们的海外中国人帮助开始了国家工业化的进程,特别是天安门事件之后,西方不投资,日本不投资,但海外华人投资,他们的投资获得了利润,于是便有更多的人加入进来。

  (注:2007年,新加坡、台湾、香港三大经济实体的GDP各为1410亿美元、3980亿美元、2050亿美元,均入围世界50大经济体之列,以三地强大的经济总量作为支撑,背依中国大陆庞大的市场、互补的产业结构等要因,在过去三十年前成就了三方的共赢。)

  《21世纪》:香港已经回归,大陆与台湾已签署"大三通"协议。但是随着香港、台湾与大陆经济的融合,香港和台湾会不会在将来失去它现有的优势和国际地位?

  李光耀:这很难说。50年后,香港就完全归属中国。但它140年的特殊历史不会改变,从1840年到1997年,噢,是150年。他们骨子里接受的是西方体制的灌输,这使得他们很像新加坡。所以我觉得就算50年后他们完全归属大陆,其政府体制、经济体制、生活习惯、法治特点都会区别于中国大陆。

  "不能将中国和印度作比较"

  《21世纪》:我看了郑必坚先生给您提的词:"仰观宇宙之大,俯察品类之盛",非常有气势的一句话。现在我们可以看到亚洲发展的现阶段,中国大陆有自己的一个模式,而印度也有它的不是特别相同的模式,您怎么评价这两种模式?以及它们各自发展的趋势?

  李光耀:我认为将这两个国家相比较是很困难的,因为他们是两个不同的实体,两个不同的民族。中国90%的人口为汉族,而印度没有较大的民族,他们拥有320种不同的语言和方言。模糊的讲,他们有70-80%的人信奉印度教,10%的人是穆斯林、基督徒或其他教派教徒;所以说这个国家是很特别的:脱胎于英属印度,连铁路也是英属印度修建的。甚至到了今天,国家部长所说的语言也不一定被全国人民听懂。如果他说英语,那么40%的国民可以听懂,如果说印地语,听得懂的人只有7%等等。所以这样一个国家要动员全国人民是很困难的。

  所以我才认为不能将中国和印度作比较。而且他们的社会制度也不一样,印度实行的是多党民主,中央为多党制,超过30个邦也是多党制,中央和地方邦有时会处于不同的政府之下,因而,他们的工作缺乏协同。我刚刚读完一本名为《Indian Diaspora》的书,我的估计是,如果他们愿意改变,而且是从根本上思想意识的改变、文化的改变和宪法的改变,那么他们可以取得中国60%的发展成绩。我举个例子,一年半以前,在马哈拉斯特拉邦,也就是孟买所在的邦,我被他们问道,孟买怎样才能变得像新加坡那样?于是我们花了两个半小时和他以及他的部长们和其他高级官员们讨论这个问题:它的机场达不到国际标准,连接机场和市区的公路也属于二流。坑洼、占地、人力车,城市没有经过适当的规划,只有高楼大厦和一些旧建筑。于是我问他们孟买归属哪里管,他们说属于马哈拉斯特拉邦。我告诉他们,如果你们想让孟买变成像上海那样的城市,那么就必须采用上海的模式,由中央直辖,你们投资其中,最终也就可以实现改变。但是他们说不行,如果由中央直辖,那么地方就会失去孟买的收入来源。所以他们将孟买的收入花在农民身上。因此,孟买也就无法变成另一个上海,也无法变成另一个新加坡。所以说这是一个宪法基本原理的问题。我曾向他们提议,为什么不改变一下?结果回答是,不,我们不能改变,那样我们就会失去收入。而我到中央和他们的领导人碰面,我说你为什么不试着求变呢?答案是,议会永远不会通过。

  还有其他一些主要问题。他们对理想社会的追求就是许许多多的村落。他们希望将城市里的设施全都搬到农村,前总统卡拉姆曾说这是他们前进的方向。于是他们问我的时候我就说,世界上没有一个国家是由村落带动发展的,发展的过程应该是城市化。农村的过剩人口已经大大提升了农业的生产力,于是他们来到城市,进入工业、服务业,在这里他们相聚,获得了良好的卫生和教育,与世界实现了连接。关于自我导致失败的例子,最近就有一个,它就是印度达达(TaTa)集团。达达欲在孟加拉建立廉价的汽车工厂,首席部长批准了,但是反对派组织农民起来反对――也许他们没有获得足够的补偿,也许他们只是想要反对。所以现在达达打算迁到另一个邦。因而就是说,他们要阻止孟加拉的工业化;其实如果他们允许在这里建立工厂,农民们就可以进入工厂挣得更多的收入。他们阻止的原因是不愿让渡土地,因为他们可以在这些土地上使用机器耕耘,提高生产力。因此这就是一个心态的问题,他们总是理想化的去追求甘地时代以村落为特征的所谓理想社会,而殊不知村落与理想社会根本不能等同。

  新加坡经验

  1997与2008年李光耀均被邀请为香港回归及北京奥运会特邀观礼嘉宾――从中国与外国合作的角度分析,没有哪一个国家似新加坡一般与中国合作如此紧密,也没有哪一个政治家,能像李光耀一样与毛泽东、邓小平、江泽民、胡锦涛中国四代领导人均有过交集,并与中国第二代至第四代领导人私交深厚。

  从合作的范围来看,中新两国除了在经济、政治、教育等合作甚多外,新加坡亦为中国最大的海外官员培训基地。李光耀说,"中国刚开放门户时对外界缺乏了解,新加坡是中国获取知识和讯息的来源之一"。

  "政府没有必要向人民或游客

  炫耀我们的财富和实力"

  《21世纪》:从80年代的河北省开始,大陆官员赴新加坡接受培训的人数与年俱增。1996年,新加坡和中国制订了中国高级官员到新加坡考察访问的计划;2002年7月,中国和新加坡就培训高级公务员达成了一项协议。许多在新加坡接受培训的官员成为中国新一轮改革的中坚力量。我们最关心的是,在上述培训中,中国学生们获取了新加坡哪方面的重要知识及经验?

  李光耀:这个培训主要是针对中国城市的市长们的。40到50名市长在新加坡南洋理工大学(N.T.U)学习3到4个月的课程。他们在此学习新加坡人是如何管理自己的城市的,进而为治理自己的城市吸取一些观点方法。但是在苏州,一些在新加坡受过培训的官员发现高级官员对改革政策管的过死,而这些高官并没有去过新加坡,也不知道新加坡是如何运作的。如此一来,改革的速度就变得缓慢了。

  《21世纪》:新加坡国立大学李光耀公共政策学院于2005年4月5日成立,您关于社会公平和政治才干的思想将会得到很好的传播。这个培训机构、您的治理理念,对过来新加坡培训的中国官员有何助益?您管理国家事务的主张和最有价值的经验是什么呢?

  李光耀:李光耀公共政策学院旨在教育管理人员如何分析问题,考虑各种条件并选择最佳条件。学生都来自亚洲国家,印度和中国。也有一部分来自台湾。他们在此学习新加坡是如何分析自己的问题、决定可能的解决方案并从中选择成功几率最高的方案,而且一旦此方案失败,依靠备用方案依然可以向前发展的。这会帮助提高地区管理水平。

  《21世纪》:新加坡的清廉之风和对拜金政治的坚定拒绝使其免除了独断政治的负担,从而使清廉成为新加坡的一个政治符号。在预防和控制腐败方面,新加坡制订了严格的法律,建立了有效的监督机制和公众舆论平台。我们对新加坡经验对根除中国腐败方面的经验很是关注。

  李光耀:从1959年政府成立我们就在腐败没有蔓延之前予以根绝。我们加强了反腐败法律的制订,赋予贪污调查局强大的权力,对在薪水之外拥有不明来源资产的官员进行调查。法律经过修订,因此官员必须证明自己的财富并非贪污所得。我们任用道德高尚、诚实可信的官员担任所有部长和高级官员,从而确保整个系统的纯洁。政府支付给这些官员高于私营部门的薪水,因而可以使他们士气高涨,并维持家庭的希望。

  中国开放之初,部长和高级官员的薪水都非常低。开放以前,薪资根本不是问题,因为他们薪水所能购买的商品取决于他们可以从中购买商品的商店等级。开放之后,所有商店都充斥着令郎满目的商品和货物,但官员必须掏钱购买。此时,他们向大批的私营企业家发放着许可和执照,使他们挣得大量财富。因而便产生了分享利润的诱惑,送礼之风日渐蔓延并最终走向贪污腐败。

  当苏联解体,进而突然进入叶利钦的市场经济时代,同样的腐败在更大的范围内发生。越南在开放的时候也面临同样的问题。越南海关总长因为偷税从老挝进口汽车而被查办。

  只要中央政府保持廉洁并有决心从严治政,腐败问题是可以解决的。官员的薪资要与其在自由市场中靠能力和才干所能挣得的报酬挂钩,这样他们就没有理由贪污腐败了。

  《21世纪》:1995~2006年,中国行政成本由996.54亿元增至7571.05亿元,部分被公车及豪华办公楼消耗掉。在新加坡,我们看到各政府部门办公楼十分简朴,如早期的新加坡人民行动党总部十分平常,如今的总部还是那么简陋。您如何预防并阻止后继领导人为自己部门耗资建造昂贵的办公楼或购买豪华办公用车?

  李光耀:我无法预测未来领导人会怎么做,如果谁有什么宏大的想法要给自己打造纪念碑,我想那会令人民行动党失去威望。我们已经建立了简朴生活、杜绝财力浮华浪费的文化。我们是小国家的的政党,没有必要向人民或游客炫耀我们的财富和实力,那会适得其反。

  《21世纪》:您在2003年9月17日,自己80岁生日那天曾说:"生命就是一次探险。"那么如果您的人生再来一次,您希望可以进行什么样的冒险?

  李光耀:这很难说。我的思想和动力是世界大变动的那个时代造就的。日本军队摧毁了欧洲列强在亚洲的势力,之后东南亚地区共产党游击队的起义运动风起云涌,他们希望可以在新独立的国家取得权力。我们当时要驱逐英国人,我们加入联合阵线与亲共分子共同对抗英国。而后来我们又不得不与共产党的联合阵线斗争,因为他们意欲夺取政权,新加坡陷入了灾难。我存在的价值和动力就是要改善人民的生活,改变国家的命运,因为我属于他们。这个信念促使我步入政坛。

Lee Kuan Yew's India rethink

Lee Kuan Yew's India rethink

By Kaushik Basu
Professor of economics, Cornell University

Lee Kuan Yew
Mr Lee caused a stir with his upbeat views on India

When it comes to crafting national economic policy, few political leaders in the world have had the perspicacity of Lee Kuan Yew.

Not only did he steer Singapore from the Third World to the First in three decades, he has written and commented on the economic problems of different nations with remarkable prescience.

Concerning India, during his term as prime minister of Singapore, he routinely expressed pessimism.

"It was sad to see the gradual rundown of the country," he once wrote.

Coming of age

It therefore caused a stir when, earlier this month on the occasion of the founding of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore, he predicted that India would be propelled into the "front ranks".

Aided by the sharp rise in foreign exchange reserves, Indian companies have, over the past three years, begun making global acquisitions

In this amazing speech, crammed with information and analysis, he argued that, over the next decades, "China and India will shake the world... In some industries, [these countries] have already leapfrogged the rest of Asia."

The question I want to investigate here is whether this optimism, which seems to be widely shared - from Martin Wolf in the Financial Times to Roger Cohen in the International Herald Tribune - is founded in facts.

The short answer is yes. While India has been doing well for more than a decade now, there have been changes over the past three years that are significant. I shall dwell on four of these changes.

First, Indian companies have come of age.

Wen Jiabao and Manmohan Singh
China and India will shake the world, says Mr Lee

This was noted by Mr Lee. When he spoke about what India had to offer China, he mentioned India's "near world-class companies", good corporate governance and capital market transparency.

This began with software companies like Infosys, Wipro and Tata Consultancy Services, which set new standards in corporate culture, and spread to other sectors.

And, aided by the sharp rise in foreign exchange reserves, Indian companies have, over the past three years, begun making global acquisitions.

In 2003 they bought up 35 companies abroad. Buying even one would have been unthinkable a few years earlier.

Back-tracked

Second, there has been a windfall in India's outsourcing business, related to the US presidential race.

Call centre worker in India
US outsourcing to countries like India has been a huge boon

Readers will recall that losing Democrat candidate John Kerry had criticised US companies that outsourced back-office work to developing countries.

He later back-tracked on this, realising that this was not good economics for the US and also that it was not commendable ethics to propagate protectionism vis-a-vis poor nations.

But once this topic made its appearance, it refused to go away.

A host of writers and commentators on television, such as Lou Dobbs, went out of their way to vilify American companies that, for greed of profit, outsourced jobs.

A lot of small American companies that had the greed of profit but did not know of this great opportunity suddenly woke up to it.

Firms that may have had four or five secretaries decided to keep some of them and shipped the remaining jobs to English-speaking poor nations.

For the Third World this was an unexpected boon, since advertising on US television is so expensive.

A large number of countries have gained and India, which already had the organisational infrastructure for back-office work, did especially well.

Optimism

Third, with China joining the World Trade Organisation, India having removed quantity controls on imports, and the advance of the IT industry, there has been an unprecedented rise in Indo-Chinese trade.

Suspected Kashmiri militants
Tackling militants has given the US and India common purpose

The trade between these two nations was $5bn in 2002, $7.6bn in 2003 and $13.6bn in 2004.

Moreover, what is interesting is that it is India that is running a trade surplus.

In general, there seems to be a boost in India's trade with the rest of Asia.

Finally, these strong economic developments come with a fortuitous political change, no matter what moral position one takes on this.

With the rise of global terrorism, US political interests have come into alignment with India's.

As Thomas Simons, ex-US ambassador to Pakistan, has noted, the Soviets left Afghanistan in February 1989 and insurgency in Kashmir rose from the summer of that year.

The fundamentalist forces that were engaging the Soviets began settling into a new job, providing a common problem for the US and India.

And combined with the fact that India and the US share similar political systems - democracy, free press and a constitutional commitment to secularism - this makes India a natural strategic partner for the US.

India should nurture these new economic and political advantages.

This will involve a pragmatic assessment of its self-interest but also, I like to believe, a commitment to certain values.

It will entail cooperation with China and the US, but also the strength to retain moral independence in global politics.

And there would be reason to take the new optimism seriously.

To read Kaushik Basu's future columns, bookmark bbcnews.com/southasia


Below is a selection of readers' views.


India remains a poor third world country. Here is the proof. Just a few kilometers from Lucknow, the seat of UP government, the largest State in the nation, tens of thousands in many villages do not have electricity at all. I challenge anyone to prove me wrong.
Sifwat Ali, USA

Urban India might be changing, thanks mainly to private entrepreneurship and the strong desire for wealth and profits. However the crying need for India now is not wealth but good administration. India lives in its villages. It is a pity that the government, the companies and the people in urban India totally ignore this side of the country. When proudly talking about how much progress has been made, they pretend that India's villages do not exist. The plight of millions of people in villages is one of despair and dejection. It is commendable that India is doing well, but it is rural India that needs to be looked into to see if achievements are truly laudable.
Tom Evans, Milton Keynes, UK

It is a huge disappointment to find Prof Basu jump into the bandwagon of hype when he should no better. Just which India is he talking about? For all the hype about companies flourishing and IT giants taking on the world, the fact remains that vast swathes of the country is in the middle ages, with millions and millions of poor who do not have access to basic literacy or health care. It is not clear at all that recent gains--admittedly remarkable--have even begun to bring any change in the life of India's dispossessed. The bitter fact is that there are two India's -- the India of optimism, development and possibility in IT and back office driven metropolises and a handful of states -- Tamil Nadu comes to mind -- which have made strides in manufacturing.
Ashfaque Swapan, Berkeley USA

I completely agree with Mr Basu regarding 'Moral Independence'. India is the most secular country in the entire world and we should try not lose our strength. Where else can you find a Muslim in a non-Muslim country to be the richest man (Mr Azim Premji) or a Muslim be the most respected person (Dr Abdul Kalam). Mr Jahangir Akbar of USA, I agree with you regarding Hindu extremism with regards to Babri mosque or Gujarat, But that does not mean that you can blame the entire country.
Kalyan, Edinburgh, UK

I find this article to be just rambling and out of depth. India is going the way where Latin America is right now, huge disparity between those who have and the have nots. Swelling in the ranks of the have nots. Marginalization of the have nots. India can call itself a success when its growth is organic, and when when atleast 50% of our people can boast of having a decent square meal a day.
Ajay, India

Every time I go back to South India where I originally come from, I see a significant change in the outlook of younger people, and gradual increase in their affordability. I do not understand Economics, but one thing that worries me is the slowness in distributing the wealth of the rich and middle class to the poorer people.
Ramachandran, USA

India is slowly losing touch with its intellectual, spiritual heritage and being turned into a super-fat consumer society. In addition we are an environmental disaster, and we make bad, kitschy cinema. I don't see this as a tremendous achievement.
Prashant, Toronto, Canada

India is definitely going strong but needs to make sure that the momentum is not derailed by short-sighted political ideas. Also India needs to widen the tax base and make every effort to ensure the benefits trickle down to the poorest of the society. Only then can India can claim its rightful place in the comity of advanced nations.
Uday Hiremath, USA

Well said! It is about time Indians started to be optimistic about their future and celebrate their successes rather than be pessimistic and have an inferiority complex as it has been for so long. Enough has been said about India's poverty in the media and India bashing by people who have other vested interest and comments on India and we all know which quarters they come from. True, there is a lot to be done, it's a matter of time. Corruption and poverty will decrease by an educated, progressive and united India. Work is already underway!
KP, UK

As a resident Indian, I can attest the changes occuring on the ground in India by many of our optimistic columnists. "Slow and Steady wins the race" is also true in economics...as of today no great civilisation has progessed explosively, it has matured in its own time. Hence, I am slightly worried about the runaway growth of China...explosion then implosion? Hope not!
Ketan Khare, India

Well, another brilliant work by Basu. If only the BBC learnt to focus more on these than the typical third world images it loves to portray India in...
Rohit, London

I am a Singaporean of Indian origin. While, I do not doubt the predictions of Lee Kuan Yew and other economists, I would like to know if the wealth that is India is gaining is going to be concentrated in the hands of a few. Has there been a change in the welfare of people? Or is it too early to tell?
Gayathri Gunasekaran, Singapore

The outworldly rosy picture is not enough to propell India in first world category, there are host of internal issues, which are required to be tackled in due time for India to achieve developed status in near future.
Indu, Us

Ever since the economic reforms started in 1990, India is moving in the right direction step by step. For India, this is just a beginning towards prosperity and her success will be directly proportional to the improvement in infrastructure, education and health care to her citizens.
Raj, India

India is on the move. It is no surprise that the rest of the world has started to take notice. With an economy growing consistently at over 6 percent every year, with over US$100 million in foreign exchange reserves,and a bourgeoning middle class, there is every reason to be optimistic about India's future. India has always been a potential superpower but poverty and corruption have hindered its progress. Manmohan Singh, in his brief stint as Prime Minister,has made significant gains with regards to India's external relations. If he displays the same determination in trying to tackle the country's internal problems such as corruption and communal divisions,India can realize its enormous potential.
Siddhartha Talya, Toronto, Canada

While I generally agree on optimisitic note of Mr Basu's analysis but would like to add caution of more economic reforms required to liberate the full potential of Indian economy. India must reform its labour laws and Small scale sector reservation policies to become more competitive and widen its economic base.
Shailendra Saxena, USA

Prof. Basu always manages to show us light and hope in its purest form. Thank you.
Babuli, India

Its interesting to see that leaders across the world are coming together to form a viewpoint that Asia is going to be the new economic superpower in the coming years. It is not surprising though because the percentage of skilled workers churned out every year is much higher in asian countries than western countries. The quality of work in these countries is no doubt achieving higher standards and giving more satisfaction to the outsourcers. All said and done, I think it will be interesting to see in the coming years if India and China can be threatened by other countries in this outsourcing race. That will also help smooth out some of the huge benefits that outsourcing has generated for these countries. In general a better economy for the world.
Neeraj, New York City

How can Kaushik Basu say that India and the USA have so much in common. India has opposed every US foreign policy initiatave for over 50 years. He says that India is devoted to secularism, but the truth is India promotes Hindu extremism. Indian politicians promote and engage in policies that violate the human rights of its own citizens. The Indians promote the slaughter of Christians and Muslims. We should not for get the Barbari Mosque or Gujarat. This idea that India is such a great place is utter nonsense. People should inform themselves rather than listen to opinions given by self serving commentators.
Jahangir Akbar, USA

I agree with Mr. Basu's positive article on India's economy. We shouldn't however forget that this excellent growth could be even better if the government can tackle rampant corruption which still exist in all quarters.
Vinod Uttamchandani, USA

It's really interesting to know that you are such a wishful thinker and Indian spokesman who is considering only booming economy alone. You are not talking about downtrodden and destitute Indian people living in various Indian states. Please always show us both sides of Indian progress and prosperity. Thanks
Ashfaq Ahmed, Canada

Well said Kaushik. The world is tilting towards free trade and India is in the driver's seat to leverage this potential. Our politicians need to inculcate this potential and improve the infrastructure, root out red tapism and empower the people so that we could be in the forefront of capitalism and freedom thus heralding democracy.
Rajesh Sundaram, India

"Moral Independence" are very lofty words. Morality depends on your paradigm and independence is worthwhile only if you can lead. The Non Aligned Movement both highly moral and independent created little value for India or the world. Cooperation with China and the US could to a large extent force India to give up a portion of its moral independence eg. India's position on Tibet and Iraq. India might be propelled to the front ranks in less than 10yrs but fronk ranks with the strength to retain moral independence is a dream very far away.
Nisha Nath, usa

I sort of liked the reasoning put forward by Mr. Basu in his optimistic assessment of India till I reached towards the end. His recommendation for India to maintain "moral independece" is scary. The Indian self-righteousness is world renowned and has set us back diplomatically just as our economic policies did us in till the 90's. I believe India needs independent but emapathetic foreign policy. India must first begin to understand and resepct compulsions of other nations before preaching moral superiority.
Neil Mehta, USA

A further goal for India would be to stabilize the subcontinent and make it a dynamo of growth that it was a long time back. The subcontinent contains upwards of 600 million muslims - by far the largest denomination of muslims anywhwere. Thier inclusion into a progressive and democratic framework would do more to stabilize the Islamic world than any amount of military intervention. Also India will have to work to ensure that countries in the emerging world do not emulate the neo-autocratic framework of china. For this India will have to become more liberal, more prosperous ,more democratic and less unsure about herself.
Rajiv, Japan

There is no doubt about the progress made in IT. But we as Indians have to reassess and redefine our work culture and tackle severe corruption in certain areas such government offices where we all know what's going on. This is not a small problem at all.Law is not sufficiently helping in this regard.All major government organisation have to revamped with common code of functioning all over India.Just progress made in IT will not make any country superpower.
Arjun, India

I do certainly agree that there has been a fundamental shift over the last decade in India. Unfortunately, this is limited to a few companies in a few sectors. It is irrational to think 35 foreign acquisitions is going to make any difference to the over 600 million rural Indians. The opportunities created over the last decade has been limited to a few elite Indians who have had the privilege to study in urban institutions in English. A hundred kilometers from any 'booming' city, nothing has changed. India will have to invest a lot more in education and basic infrastructure at the rural level to "propel itself into the front ranks"
Pranay Sonalkar, USA

Mr. Lee's observations on the future of India are correct. I am sure the credit should largely go to the Indian private sector. About 15-20 years ago, there was a little difference between the public and private sector of India. Both sectors were equally inefficient and non-productive. From that point Indian private sector has taken a quantum leap ahead. I am sure the top Indian firms - not only IT firms - now stand shoulder to shoulder with their US or European counterparts in every respect. As Time magazine has noted for fifty years India was waiting her self restricted wheel chair. This is the time to get up with a bang!
Chanuka Wattegama, Sri Lanka

With the youngest population in the world, and a second tryst with destiny, I have full faith in the inherent Entrepreneurship and deep desire to excel among Indians. The energy that was all bottled up for decades has been unleashed. Outsourcing and current Entrepreneurship trends are only a start of a wave for India and china to join the global economy as equal players. Like Manmohan singh (India's Prime minister) once quoted "No one can resist an idea whose time has come"
Shubham Nagar, UK

I read this with interest. It's good to hear about optimism about one's own country.We must be cautios and see we do not get into the cycle of self satisfion and not do anything about the looming problems like Electicity Shortage, Water Supply, corruption, and so on.
Ishita, India

It is a fact that India is moving ahead with a better pace than the previous decade. Initial days were similar for both China and India, but with a strong and fruitful administration, economic reforms and healthy infrastructure China has leaped ahead. This is the right time to do a comparative study between these two giants. Recently India has got a modern leadership which is similar to that of China in decision making, but still has to improve in implementation. About foreign investment, it is really interesting to see the leaders are acting like salesmen, and it will bring India very fruitful results in future. But the most crucial area is of infrastructure. Indian companies are already feeling suffocation and it is too late to work on infrastructure building. Briefly, building up of good infrastructure will build up another India with a strong foundation for heading towards the block of developed countries.
Jossi John, United Arab Emirates